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Medicion del riesgo de la cola en el mercado del petroleo mexicano aplicando la teoria de valores extremos condicional

Author

Listed:
  • Raul De Jesus Gutierrez

    () (Universidad Autonoma del Estado de Mexico.)

  • Edgar Ortiz Calisto
  • Oswaldo Garcia Salgado
  • Veronica Angeles Morales

Abstract

Este trabajo aplica la teoria de valores extremos a la distribucion condicional de los residuales estandarizados de especificaciones GARCH, EGARCH y TGARCH, y construye medidas de riesgo dinamicas para la estimacion del VaR y expected shortfall de las posiciones larga y corta de la mezcla de petroleo mexicana del 4 de enero de 1989 al 31 de diciembre de 2013. Los resultados del proceso de validacion evidencian que los modelos basados en la teoria de valores extremos condicional y simulacion historico-filtrado proporcionan estimaciones mas precisas del VaR condicional en cualquier nivel de confianza, aunque su desempeño se reduce significativamente en la prediccion del expected shortfall condicional. En niveles de confianza del 99.5% y 99.9%, los hallazgos empiricos muestran que el gobierno esta propenso a experimentar un mayor riesgo que los consumidores de petroleo mexicano en el mercado internacional, porque la cola inferior de la distribucion empirica es mas estable y ancha que la cola superior.

Suggested Citation

  • Raul De Jesus Gutierrez & Edgar Ortiz Calisto & Oswaldo Garcia Salgado & Veronica Angeles Morales, 2016. "Medicion del riesgo de la cola en el mercado del petroleo mexicano aplicando la teoria de valores extremos condicional," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 13(2), pages 77-98, Julio-Dic.
  • Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:13y:2016:i:2:p:77-98
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    Keywords

    Petroleo; Teoria de valores extremos condicional; Medidas VaR y ES.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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