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Un analisis numerico de inclusion financiera y pobreza

Listed author(s):
  • Isai Guizar

    ()

    (Instituto Tecnologico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey.)

  • Claudio Gonzalez - Vega
  • Mario J. Miranda

La inclusion financiera per se no es capaz de aliviar la pobreza, pero servicios financieros (credito y depositos) eficientes facilitan la adopcion de tecnologias de produccion avanzadas, que generan mayores ingresos esperados. Proponemos y resolvemos modelos dinamicos, estocasticos, de horizonte infinito, que muestran que la inclusion en el mercado de depositos (o de credito) no garantiza mayores ingresos entre las poblaciones mas pobres. Identificamos niveles iniciales de riqueza (umbrales de consumo) donde los hogares no demandan depositos (o no disminuyen sus niveles de endeudamiento). La ausencia de demanda de servicios de deposito (o el uso del credito solo para estabilizar consumo) impide que la inclusion financiera impacte los ingresos del hogar. Cuando el umbral de consumo es rebasado, la riqueza del hogar todavia debe aumentar hasta alcanzar el umbral adopcion. Durante esta transicion, los servicios financieros son una herramienta de administracion de riesgo. Cuando el nivel de riqueza es suficientemente alto, en el umbral de adopcion, el deposito acumulado (o el credito) es utilizado para invertir en tecnologias mas avanzadas. Esto tiene implicaciones en el diseño de politicas de inclusion financiera para diferentes poblaciones meta. La inclusion financiera es necesaria, pero no suficiente, para el alivio de la pobreza.

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File URL: http://www.revistascientificas.udg.mx/index.php/EQ/article/view/4857/4538
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Article provided by Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia. in its journal EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios.

Volume (Year): 12 (2015)
Issue (Month): 2 (Julio-Diciembre)
Pages: 7-24

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Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:12:y:2015:i:2:p:7-24
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Web page: http://econoquantum.cucea.udg.mx

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