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14 years later: The spread of drug crime in Mexico

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  • Nicolas Corona Juarez

    () (University of Heidelberg)

Abstract

Durante los ultimos cinco años la seguridad publica en Mexico ha empezado a ser uno de los principales problemas para la sociedad civil y las autoridades. Analistas han advertido que la inseguridad se esta extendiendo a regiones que anteriormente no eran afectadas. Utilizando tecnicas de econometria espacial el presente articulo investiga si y como el crimen de drogas en un determinado estado de Mexico se extiende a sus estados vecinos. Se utilizan datos panel para los 31 estados mexicanos y la Ciudad de Mexico durante el periodo 1997-2010. Contralando por las caracteristicas politicas y socioeconomicas de las regiones de Mexico, se encuentra un efecto de contagio positivo y significativo de los crimenes relacionados al trafico de drogas. Estos hallazgos toman en cuenta la endogeneidad inherente a la regresion espacial utilizando una estimacion 2SLS. Los resultados son robustos a la seleccion de la matriz ponderadora de rezagos espaciales. Ademas se encuentra una evidencia debil de un efecto disuasivo en los estados vecinos al estado i al controlar por medidas coercitivas contra las drogas. Esto implica que las medidas de disuasion de las autoridades en los estados vecinos al estado i reducen debilmente los crimenes de drogas en el estado i.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Corona Juarez, 2014. "14 years later: The spread of drug crime in Mexico," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 11(2), pages 7-40, Julio-Dic.
  • Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:11:y:2014:i:2:p:7-40
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    File URL: http://www.revistascientificas.udg.mx/index.php/EQ/article/view/2310/2078
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    Keywords

    Drug crimes; Mexico; Spatial Econometrics; Panel Data;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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