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Modelli di crescita limitata dalla bilancia dei pagamenti: storia e panoramica


  • Anthony P. Thirlwall

    () (University of Kent)


Thirlwall’s 1979 balance of payments constrained growth model predicts that a country’s long run growth of GDP can be approximated by the ratio of the growth of real exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports assuming negligible effects from real exchange rate movements. The paper surveys developments of the model since then, allowing for capital flows, interest payments on debt, terms of trade movements, and disaggregation of the model by commodities and trading partners. Various tests of the model are discussed, and an extensive list of papers that have examined the model is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Modelli di crescita limitata dalla bilancia dei pagamenti: storia e panoramica," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 64(256), pages 319-367.
  • Handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2011:43

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Lucarelli & Daniela Palma & Roberto Romano, 2013. "Quando gli investimenti rappresentano un vincolo. Contributo alla discussione sulla crisi italiana nella crisi internazionale," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 66(262), pages 167-203.

    More about this item


    balance of payments; Thirlwall's law; dynamic Harrod multiplier;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies


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