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Modelli formali della crisi


  • Giancarlo Gandolfo

    () (Sapienza Università di Roma, Facoltà di Economia)


In this paper a distinction is made between the immediate technical-financial causes that unleashed the crisis in the United States, and its macroeconomic causes, which also explain its international transmission. Two formal paradigmatic models are considered. The first is Li’s formula on default correlation (“The Formula that Killed Wall Street†), whose misuse gave rise to the crisis. The second is the international financial multiplier set forth by Paul Krugman. After examining these two models, the paper concludes that, contrary to widespread opinion, the crisis was indeed foreseen by some economists, who, coming from the non-mainstream side of the profession, were largely ignored.

Suggested Citation

  • Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2010. "Modelli formali della crisi," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 63(249), pages 67-79.
  • Handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2010:6

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    Cultura economica; Crisi finanziaria; Regole;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy


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