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Risk Transmission Between Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and Government Bonds During the Global Financial Crisis. The Case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Barbara BÄ™dowska-Sójka

    (Poznan University of Economics and Business)

  • Agata Kliber

    (Poznan University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

The goal of the paper is to verify the direction of sovereign risk transmission between sovereign CDS and sovereign bond markets in the Central European economies: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We focus on the hectic crisis period of 2008-2013. On the one hand, the sCDS market is said to react faster to the news than the sovereign bonds market. On the other hand, the bond market is related more closely to the internal situation of the country than the sCDS one and thus can price the sovereign risk more accurate. Moreover, the relationships between the markets can change during crisis time. We find that in the case of most risky and most indebted economy in Hungary there was a feedback between sCDS and sovereign bonds risk. In the case of Poland sCDS market risk Granger caused the risk of sovereign bonds – if we exclude instantaneous causality from the analysis; when it is included, feedback occurred. Eventually, in the case of the Czech Republic the risk of sCDS market Granger caused risk of the bonds market.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara BÄ™dowska-Sójka & Agata Kliber, 2019. "Risk Transmission Between Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and Government Bonds During the Global Financial Crisis. The Case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 11(3), pages 153-172, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:11:y:2019:i:3:p:153-172
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign credit default swaps; bond yields; Central and Eastern Europe; risk transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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