Geopolitical scenarios of Moldova-Romania integration: Between reunification, Europeanization, and strategic convergence

This research assesses the potential for deeper integration between the Republic of Moldova and Romania by distinguishing political reunification from the wider processes of functional integration, Europeanization, and geopolitical realignment. It employs a qualitative explanatory case study and document analysis of academic literature, policy documents, institutional records, and the evidence assembled in the original research paper. The analysis uses three geopolitical lenses: classical-material geopolitics, critical geopolitics, and geoeconomics. The findings show that historical, linguistic, citizenship, social, infrastructural, and economic linkages create substantial integration capacity, yet these linkages do not automatically generate a democratic mandate for state unification. Moldova's EU accession process provides the most institutionally credible pathway for convergence because it reduces regulatory, economic, and administrative distance without requiring immediate territorial absorption. At the same time, Transnistria, Gagauzia, Russian influence, Moldova's constitutional neutrality, differences in political identity, and the fiscal costs of institutional convergence remain major constraints. Romania's position inside the EU and NATO strengthens its role as Moldova's principal Western gateway, especially in energy security, infrastructure, and policy transfer. The research concludes that gradual functional and EU-mediated integration is more feasible than rapid legal reunification, while formal union remains contingent on democratic consent, territorial settlement, minority guarantees, security stabilization, and sustained institutional convergence.