Tariff wars and the Global South: Economic impact and trade flow implications of the contemporary tariff conflict

The resurgence of protectionist trade policy in the twenty-first century has precipitated a complex and consequential realignment of the global trading architecture. This study examines the economic impact and trade flow implications of the contemporary tariff conflict—commonly referred to as the "tariff war"—on economies of the Global South, comprising developing and emerging-market nations across Sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Drawing on macroeconomic data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), World Bank, and International Monetary Fund (IMF), this paper employs a multi-dimensional analytical framework incorporating trade diversion theory, terms-of-trade analysis, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling insights to assess short- and medium-term economic consequences. The findings indicate that Global South economies face asymmetric and disproportionate exposure to tariff escalation initiated between major trading powers, particularly the United States and China, due to their structural dependence on commodity exports, limited export diversification, and vulnerability to capital flow reversals. While certain countries have accrued marginal gains through trade diversion, the aggregate macroeconomic effects—including GDP contraction, inflationary pressure, currency depreciation, and deteriorating terms of trade—are substantially negative. This paper argues that the tariff war fundamentally represents a structural threat to the development trajectories of Global South economies, underscoring the urgency of coordinated multilateral policy responses and South-South trade integration as adaptive strategies.