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Une projection de l'économie française à l'horizon 2001

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Confais
  • Gérard Cornilleau
  • Catherine Mathieu
  • Xavier Timbeau

Abstract

[fre] Les perspectives macroéconomiques pour la France sont actuellement très médiocres. Une courte reprise, d'ampleur très limitée, a succédé à la récession de 1993, mais dès 1996 la croissance est retombée en dessous de 2 %. D'ici 2001, il apparaît peu vraisemblable, en l'absence d'une stimulation venant de l'extérieur, que l'on puisse effacer les effets de la récession du début des années quatre-vingt-dix. Les problèmes structurels de l'économie française demeurent : la politique économique reste plus soucieuse de lutte contre l'inflation et de rééquilibrage financier à court terme que de croissance ; l'augmentation trop faible des salaires et le déséquilibre permanent du partage du revenu qui en découle pèsent sur la demande. Seule la compétitivité bénéficie de la croissance lente et de l'absence de tensions sur les prix. Il en résulte une amélioration continue du commerce extérieur qui est toutefois insuffisante pour compenser l'atonie de la demande interne. Dans ces conditions, la croissance devrait stagner autour de 2 % par an en moyenne ce qui ne permettrait pas de juguler l'augmentation du chômage. Le seul espoir de reprise plus vigoureuse repose sur la baisse des taux d'intérêt. Il faudrait toutefois, pour qu'il se concrétise, que l'économie réagisse plus vigoureusement que par le passé à la baisse des taux et que celle-ci soit, durablement, d'une ampleur plus importante que celle qui a été enregistrée jusqu'à aujourd'hui. [eng] Current macroeconomic prospects for the French economy are gloomy. The 1993 slump was followed by a short and moderate upturn. As soon as in 1996, the growth rate of the economy was lower than 2 %. Considering the five coming years, it looks unlikely that, without any external stimulus, the effects of the recession that started in 1992 should be cancelled. The structural problems of the French economy remain : in the short run, economie policy is more concerned with fighting inflation and reaching financial balances, than with economic growth ; demand is dampened by too low wage increases. Slow growth and low priees only help the improvement of competitiveness. As a resuit, external trade surpluses keep on increasing, which does not compensate for the sluggish internai demand. In this context, the average annual growth rate of the French economy should remain around 2 %, which would not allow for a reduction in the number of the unemployed. The only hope for a stronger recovery to take place is based on interest rates cuts. However, this implies that the impact of interest rates on the economy is more significant than it was in the past, that the fall in interest rates is bigger than the one that has taken place up to now, and is durable.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Confais & Gérard Cornilleau & Catherine Mathieu & Xavier Timbeau, 1997. "Une projection de l'économie française à l'horizon 2001," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 60(1), pages 7-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1997_num_60_1_1442
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1997.1442
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