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Perspectives de l'économie française en 1994 et 1995

Listed author(s):
  • Division modèle-trimestriel Mosaïque
  • Pierre-Alain Muet
  • Gérard Cornilleau
  • Andrew Brociner
  • Loïc Cadiou
  • Eric Contais
  • Catherine Mathieu

[eng] Forecasts for the French economy in 1994 and 1995 Division modèle trimestriel Mosaïque This article presents the forecasts of economic growth for the French economy until 1995. The recovery is now under way in continental Europe, where business surveys show an increase in dometic and foreign demand. These demand perspectives lead to an expected increase in investment, which will be the main engine of growth in 1995. In France, the forecast for GDP is a growth rate of 2 % in 1994 and 3,1 % in 1995. This growth will be non-inflationary (the growth rate of consumer prices is forecast for 1,7 % in 1995), and the trade balance, like the current account balance, will be in surplus. The growth rate will not, however, be sufficient to reduce the number of unemployed, which will reach 3,5 millions by the end of 1995. The recovery is, nevertheless, fragile. The forecast assumes that interest rates in Europe will continue to decrease, despite the increase in the rate of capacity utilization. It also assumes that governments don't reduce their budget deficits too quickly, but only accumulate fiscal revenues induced by economic growth. [fre] Cet article présente les perspectives de croissance de l'économie française à l'horizon 1995. La reprise est désormais bien engagée en Europe continentale, où les enquêtes sur les opinions des chefs d'entreprise font état d'un redressement de la demande étrangère comme intérieure. Ces perspectives de demande conduisent à anticiper une reprise de l'investissement, qui serait le principal moteur de la croissance en 1995. En France, le PIB croîtrait de 2 % en 1994 et de 3,1 % l'année suivante. Cette croissance serait non inflationniste (1, 7 % d'augmentation des prix à la consommation en 1995), et la balance commerciale, comme celle des paiements courants, demeureraient excédentaires. La croissance ne serait cependant pas assez forte pour réduire significativement le nombre de chômeurs, qui atteindrait près de 3,5 millions à la fin 1995. La reprise est cependant fragile. Elle suppose que les autorités monétaires européennes poursuivent leur politique de baisse de taux d'intérêt, malgré l'accroissement des taux d'utilisation des capacités de production. Elle suppose aussi que les autorités budget lires ne cherchent pas à réduire trop rapidement les déficits publics, mais se contentent d'engranger les recettes fiscales dues à la croissance.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 50 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 5-28

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1994_num_50_1_1372
Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1994.1372
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