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Perspectives pour l'économie française en 1991 et 1992. Sortir du ralentissement ?

Author

Listed:
  • Département d'économétrie de l'OFCE
  • Pierre-Alain Muet
  • Alain Gubian
  • Thierry Chauveau
  • Gérard Cornilleau
  • Catherine Mathieu
  • Marie-Ange Véganzonès

Abstract

[fre] Cet article présente les perspectives pour l'économie française à l'horizon 1992. La croissance ralentit nettement en 1991 mais pourrait se redresser en 1992 avec celles des partenaires industriels si la progression de l'investissement est à nouveau soutenue. Les conditions structurelles de l'économie française demeurent saines ; le seul véritable point noir est la hausse du chômage, trois thèmes sont ensuite présentés : Chômage et emploi : y-a-t-il encore un lien ? ; La situation financière des entreprises demeure favorable en dépit d'un recul conjoncturel. ; La dégradation généralisée des échanges industriels civils depuis 1984. Enfin, l'annexe actualise l'article « Révisions successives des comptes nationaux et de l'emploi, quelques ordres de grandeurs », Revue de l'OFCE, n° 35 paru en janvier, à l'aide des comptes de 1990. [eng] The French economic growth rate would be of 1.2 % in 1991, the lower rate ever recorded since 1984. Growth could be stronger in 1992, following that of industrial countries, if the investment growth was sustained enough. The main and most worrying problem of the economy remains the high level of unemployment, which would keep on increasing. Three points have been highlighted : 1) Is there still any relationship between unemployment and labour force ? 2) The firms financial accounts are still getting well, despite a temporary setback. 3) The general degradation of non military industrial trade since 1984. Last, this article presents an actualisation of the article : « Revision of National Accounts and Employment Figures : Orders of Magnitude », published in the Revue de l'OFCE, in January 1991.

Suggested Citation

  • Département d'économétrie de l'OFCE & Pierre-Alain Muet & Alain Gubian & Thierry Chauveau & Gérard Cornilleau & Catherine Mathieu & Marie-Ange Véganzonès, 1991. "Perspectives pour l'économie française en 1991 et 1992. Sortir du ralentissement ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 5-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1991_num_37_1_1249
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1991.1249
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1991.1249
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