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Révisions successives des comptes nationaux et de l'emploi, quelques ordres de grandeurs

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  • Gérard Cornilleau
  • Alain Gubian

Abstract

[fre] Les comptes économiques trimestriels et annuels sont l'objet de plusieurs révisions successives qui s'étalent sur quatre ans et peuvent conduire à des modifications importantes des évaluations initiales. On ne peut donc pas utiliser sans précaution les informations statistiques relatives au passé le plus proche, notamment lorsqu'il s'agit d'établir une prévision. C'est ce que montre cet article qui analyse les révisions successives des comptes nationaux ainsi que celles qui affectent les estimations de l'emploi. [eng] The annual and quaterly National Accounts are regularly revised. The routine process of accounts' revisions takes four years, and often lead to substantial changes of the initial figures. Therefore, one has to be very precautionous in using recent figures, especially for forecasting purpose. The paper adresses this problem by analyzing the revisions of National Accounts and employment figures.

Suggested Citation

  • Gérard Cornilleau & Alain Gubian, 1991. "Révisions successives des comptes nationaux et de l'emploi, quelques ordres de grandeurs," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(1), pages 77-134.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1991_num_35_1_1236 Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1991.1236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, pages 11-44.
    2. Domowitz, Ian & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1988. "Market Structure and Cyclical Fluctuations in U.S. Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 55-66, February.
    3. Paul Dubois, 1985. "Ruptures de croissance et progrès technique," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 181(1), pages 3-31.
    4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    5. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-947, October.
    6. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1992. "Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1153-1207, December.
    7. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    8. Robert E. Hall, 1989. "Invariance Properties of Solow's Productivity Residual," NBER Working Papers 3034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandre Mathis & Andrew Brociner, 1994. "Retour vers le futur. Une analyse rétrospective des prévisions de MOSAÏQUE," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(1), pages 207-228.

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