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MIMOSA, une modélisation de l'économie mondiale

  • Jérôme Henry
  • François Lecointe
  • Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi
  • Jean Le Dem
  • Marie-Hélène Blonde
  • Virginie Coudert
  • Elizabeth Kremp
  • Henri Delessy
  • Murielle Fiole
  • Hélène Harasty
  • Sébastien Paris-Horvitz
  • OFCE

[eng] Mimosa, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, jointly built by the CEPII and the OFCE, is now operational. This article presents its main features and describes some monetary and fiscal multipliers. The economies of the six bigger industrialised countries are described in great detail by neo-keynesian models : a five product disaggregation distinguishes the energy sector, agriculture, the non-traded sector, the government sector and the industrial sector for which a putty-clay production function ensures compatibilities between employment, investment and production capacity behaviour. These models allow a precise analysis of the consequences of many kinds of monetary or fiscal policies. The rest of the world is divided into nine zones, more succinctly modelled : the model reveals in particular the financing constraints which bear on the imports of the less developed countries. International trade is analysed through a four product disaggregation. The article shows the model's properties while describing the impacts, in the country and abroad, of an increase in public expenditure in one of the major countries. It studies the consequences of a decline of the value of the dollar and finally the implications of a woldwide decrease in interest rates. Although it remains, in some respects, work in progress, the Mimosa model is already a useful tool for understanding the functioning of the world economy and for predicting its evolution. [fre] MIMOSA, modèle macroéconomique de l'économie mondiale, construit en commun par le CEPII et l'OFCE est maintenant opérationnel. Le présent article en présente les principales caractéristiques ainsi que quelques propriétés variantielles. Les économies des six plus importants pays industrialisés sont décrites en détail par des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne ; le découpage en cinq branches permet d'isoler l'énergie, le secteur agricole, le secteur abrité, le secteur non-marchand et l'industrie où la fonction de production, de type putty-clay, permet d'assurer la cohérence des comportements d'emploi, d'investissement, d'accumulation de capacités de production. Ces modèles autorisent une analyse fine des diverses mesures de politiques budgétaires ou monétaires. Neufs zones, analysées plus sommairement, regroupent le reste du monde : le modèle intègre en particulier les contraintes de financement qui pèsent sur les possibilités d'importations des pays en développement. Les interdépendances commerciales sont décrites en quatre produits. L'article analyse comment le modèle rend compte des effets différenciés sur l'économie considérée et sur l'économie mondiale d'une hausse des dépenses publiques survenant dans un des grands pays. Il étudie ensuite les conséquences d'une baisse du dollar, puis d'une baisse généralisée des taux d'intérêt. Bien qu'il reste, à certains égards, en construction, le modèle MIMOSA constitue déjà un outil utile pour comprendre le fonctionnement de l'économie mondiale et prévoir son évolution.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 30 (1990)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 137-197

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1990_num_30_1_1202
Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1990.1202
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