IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/rvofce/ofce_0751-6614_1989_num_28_1_1180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Du bon usage des modèles

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Marcel Jeanneney

Abstract

[eng] The merit of economic models is that they make interdependencies explicit, and measure their effects quantitatively, thereby making it possible to make conditional projections, if not to make true predictions. They also permit retrospective analysis, which can be rich in information. . It is always necessary to take account of their limitations. The recent past, the point of departure for their projections, is often not well known. The unavoidable introduction of exogenous data restricts the extent of their explanatory power and renders uncertain the projections they make. The relationships on which they are based do not take into account likely structural changes, which are usually slow but which can be sudden. . On the basis of these considerations, it could be that growth will be significantly more lively than is suggested by the models. Nevertheless, there is the possibility of accidents, which could reduce growth. [fre] Le mérite des modèles économétriques est d'expliciter les interdépendances, d'en mesurer quantitativement les effets et de permettre ainsi de réaliser des projections ou de tracer des perspectives, sinon de formuler de véritables prévisions. Ils permettent en outre des analyses rétrospectives riches d'enseignements. . Il faut toutefois avoir conscience de leurs limites. Le passé le plus récent, point de départ de leurs projections, est souvent mal connu. L'introduction nécessaire de données exogènes restreint le champ de leur valeur explicative et rend incertain l'avenir qu'ils décrivent. Les relations sur lesquelles ils sont fondés ne prennent qu'imparfaitement en compte des changements structurels susceptibles d'agir, lentement le plus souvent, mais parfois avec brusquerie, sur la marche des affaires. . Considérant certains facteurs actuellement favorables, on est en droit de penser que la croissance pourrait être plus vive prochainement qu'il n'est indiqué par les modèles. Des risques d'accidents existent cependant.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Marcel Jeanneney, 1989. "Du bon usage des modèles," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 28(1), pages 5-14.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1989_num_28_1_1180
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1989.1180
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1989.1180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1989.1180
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ofce_0751-6614_1989_num_28_1_1180
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/ofce.1989.1180?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1989_num_28_1_1180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ofce .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.