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Indicateurs d'engagements implicites des systèmes de retraite : que mesurent-ils exactement ?

Listed author(s):
  • Didier Blanchet
  • Jean-François Ouvrard

[fre] La notion d'engagements implicites des systèmes de retraite peut se décliner de plusieurs manières. Deux approches sont centrées sur les stocks de droits déjà accumulés et restant à servir aux retraités ou cotisants actuels : il s'agit des approches dites « en droits acquis » ou « en système fermé ». Une troisième approche prend également en compte les droits et cotisations des générations de cotisants à venir : il s'agit de l'approche en système ouvert. Ce document propose des chiffrages indicatifs issus de ces différentes approches. Il propose également quelques résultats analytiques relatifs aux deux premières approches en régime permanent équilibré. Il compare enfin les propriétés des trois approches face à des scénarios démographiques types, à savoir un baby-boom et/ou un accroissement de l'espérance de vie. Ces simulations confirment que l'approche en système ouvert est plus informative et plus adaptée lorsque la question que l'on se pose est celle de la soutenabilité du système à long terme, et non pas celle du provisionnement des engagements courants. [eng] Indexes of implicit liabilities for pension systems : what do they measure? The notion of implicit liabilities for pension systems can be interpreted in several ways. Two approaches are centered on benefits due to current pensioners or to be paid to current contributors : these two approaches are the method of accrued-to-date liabilities and the closed-group method. A third approach also includes prospective benefits and contributions for future cohorts of contributors : this approach is generally referred to as the method of open-system liabilities. This paper presents some indicative quantifications of these three approaches for French pensions. It also gives some analytical results concerning the steady state level of liabilities computed according to the first two approaches. We finally compare the behaviour of these three approaches under situations of stylized demographic change, i.e. a baby-boom and/or a continuous increase in life expectancy. These simulations confirm that the open system approach is more informative and more convenient when the question we are interested in is the question of long run sustainabi- lity, and not the question of prefunding of current entitlements.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 3-47

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2007_num_22_1_1640
Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2007.1640
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