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Eléments d'évaluation de la réforme des retraites

Author

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  • Jean-Yves Hénin
  • Thomas Weitzenblum

Abstract

[fre] Jean-Yves Hénin, Thomas Weitzenblum Eléments d'évaluation de la réforme des retraites. Ce travail est consacré à une évaluation des coûts et avantages de différents scénarios de réforme des retraites. Il considère tant les stratégies d'ajustement des prestations : — réduction des taux de remplacement, départ retardé - que les stratégies de financement à l'équilibre courant ou introduisant un fonds de lissage ou encore constituant un pilier de capitalisation publique. Le calcul explicite de la dynamique de transition dans un modèle d'équilibre général à agents hétérogènes permet une caractérisation très complète de l'impact en termes de bien- être sur diverses cohortes et par PCS de ces stratégies alternatives. Les résultats font ressortir d'abord la dégradation spontanée de la situation des « jeunes », nés ou à naître, dans un scénario tendanciel. Ils soulignent l'importance des effets redis- tributifs et confirment que loin de constituer des scénarios « pareto - améliorants, où tout le monde gagne, les efforts à consentir par les générations actuellement actives, sont relativement élevés. Ils prouvent que l'impact de mesures de « départ retardé » sur des indicateurs synthétiques d'inégalités (les coefficients de Gini) est plus défavorable que celui de mesures de réduction proportionnelle des taux de remplacement. [eng] Assessing Pension Reforms. In order to assess the welfare costs and gains of different scenarios of pension reforms for French socio- occupational groups, we compute transition paths from the current situation to the steady states resulting from the ultimate effects of reforms. Accounting for different income and mortality risks, together with bequests, allows our model to better reproduce wealth inequality than standard life-cycle models do. Alternative pensions reforms are considered, combining : i) reduced generosity through lower replacement rates or postponing retire- ment ; ii) alternative financing schemes : current balance vs. building a temporary smoothing fund or a permanent funded pillar. The consequences of these scenarios on macro aggregates, inequality measures and age/group specific welfare and consumption profiles are computed at the rational expectation equilibrium. We first show how the situation of young cohorts deteriorates in the no-reform case, with a passive adjustment in contribution rates. However, the intergenerational redistributive effects of reforms are found to be large, thus supporting the view that structural pension reforms are not Pareto-improving. We especially show that postponing the retirement age increases inequalities more than reducing replacement rates does and that alternative financing adjustements involve only modest intra-generational redistributive effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Yves Hénin & Thomas Weitzenblum, 2004. "Eléments d'évaluation de la réforme des retraites," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 18(3), pages 9-73.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2004_num_18_3_1529
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2004.1529
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/rfeco.2004.1529
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    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/rfeco_0769-0479_2004_num_18_3_1529
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    Cited by:

    1. Vincent Touzé & Cyrille Hagneré & Gaël Dupont, 2003. "Les modèles de microsimulation dynamique dans l’analyse des réformes des systèmes de retraites : une tentative de bilan," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 160(4), pages 167-191.

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