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Analyse de la cessation d'activité en Belgique

Listed author(s):
  • Arnaud Dellis
  • Raphaël Desmet
  • Alain Jousten
  • Pergio Perelman

[fre] L'objectif de cette étude est de montrer l'influence du système de retraite sur la cessation d'activité. La première étape consiste à estimer les incitations financières implicites à ce système et ensuite à les introduire comme variables explicatives du départ à la retraite dans une régression de type probit. Le résultat majeur de cette contribution est d'indiquer le rôle significatif de ces incitations sur les décisions individuelles. La seconde étape consiste à utiliser les résultats de cette modélisation pour analyser l'effet de réformes sur la prolongation de l'activité. Il apparaît que l'aménagement de certaines règles d'octroi et de calcul des pensions pourrait inciter les travailleurs âgés à différer l'âge de leur retraite. [eng] The present paper studies the retirement incentives for elderly people in Belgium. We model the incentive structure built into the various public retirement and early retirement systems. First, we compute indicators of benefit entidement such as the social security wealth and then we use these measures as explanatory variables of early retirement in a micro-econometric probit model. From our exceptionally rich and broad database, we are able to compute rather accurate measures of all individuals' pension wealth, as well as of the implicit tax rates the elderly workers face in case of delayed retirement. We find strong evidence of social security based financial incentives inducing most workers to retire at the earliest possible stage. Finally, we use the derived parameter estimates from the probit models to simulate the responses to various policy changes.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

Volume (Year): 18 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 99-132

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2003_num_18_1_1480
Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2003.1480
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