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Asymétries budgétaires dans la zone euro, un essai de modélisation du Pacte de stabilité

  • Jérôme Creel

[fre] Cet article envisage comment le Pacte de stabilité, en introduisant des contraintes sur les instruments de politique économique, peut conduire à un équilibre non optimal. Les pays dont les finances publiques sont « saines » peuvent voir leurs marges de manœuvre budgétaires se réduire considérablement du fait de l'incapacité des pays aux finances publiques déséquilibrées à engager une politique de stabilisation. Cette externalité négative s'applique aussi à la banque centrale : elle est susceptible de devoir s'impliquer davantage dans une politique de stabilisation macroéconomique. Pour illustrer ces mécanismes, un modèle dynamique à deux pays en union monétaire est présenté. Y sont incorporés des comportements patrimoniaux des ménages, permettant d'étudier précisément les implications de l'accumulation de dette publique sur les politiques monétaire et budgétaire à court et long terme. Au final, une coordination étroite entre les gouvernements et la ВСЕ est d'autant plus souhaitable que les dif- férentes externalités envisagées sont importantes. [eng] In this paper, we show how the Stability and Growth Pact can lead to a suboptimal macroeconomic equilibrium. Eurozone countries with sound public finances can undergo a sharp reduction in their fiscal margins for manoeuvre because of the inability of countries with unbalanced public finances to implement an active fiscal policy. This negative feedback effect also applies to the central bank: it may have to get more involved in the macroeconomic stabilisation of the whole EU. To illustrate these feedback effects, we use a two-country model in a monetary union with dynamics. Households' behaviour incorporates a wealth component. This enables a precise study of the different implications of public debt growth on the design of monetary and fiscal policies from the short to the long run. At last, gains from co-ordination are substantial and grow with the level of the feedback effects.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

Volume (Year): 16 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 91-127

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2002_num_16_3_1515
Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2002.1515
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/rfeco

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