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Vieillissement démographique et chômage

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  • Manon Dominguez Dos Santos
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    [fre] Cet article étudie l'incidence du vieillissement démographique sur le chômage. Les principaux modèles macro-économiques n'y attribuent qu'une influence limitée et transitoire. Les enseignements de l'économie du travail sont en revanche plus prodigues. En premier lieu, la calibration d'un modèle de chômage d'équilibre nous conduit à estimer à - 0,8 point de pourcentage l'impact du vieillissement démographique sur le taux de chômage. Toutefois, les mesures mises en place pour assurer l'équilibre des régimes de retraites influenceraient ce phénomène. Le taux de chômage diminuerait de plus de 1 point si cet équilibre était exclusivement réalisé par une augmentation de la durée de cotisation. En revanche, le taux de chômage augmenterait de 0,2 point si l'équilibre des retraites était uniquement assuré par un relèvement des cotisations. En second lieu, l'augmentation de la part des travailleurs âgés, ayant une plus faible propension au mage, pourrait réduire d'au moins 0,5 point le taux de chômage. [eng] The aim of this paper is to study the impact of demographic ageing on unemployment. According to neokeynesian macroe- conomic models, the influence should be limited and transitory. Teachings of the labour economy are more informative. Firstly, we calibrate a model of equilibrium unemployment and estimate at -0.8 percentage points the impact of ageing on unemployment. Nevertheless, reforms which are proposed to perpetuate public pension systems are likely to affect this result. We evaluate that the unemployment rate could decrease by more than 1 point if the balance of pension systems was exclusively achieved by an extension of the duration of contribution. On the contrary, the unemployment rate could increase by 0.2 points if the balance of pensions was exclusively achieved by an increase in the contribution rate. Secondly, the increase in the share of old workers, who are less likely to be unemployed, could decrease the unemployment rate by more than 0.5 points.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 3-50

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2001_num_16_1_1447
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2001.1447
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