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La dynamique du système monétaire et financier international

  • Jean-Pierre Berdot
  • Gérard Kébabdjian
  • Jacques Léonard
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    [fre] L'idée de cet article est d'articuler dans un schéma intégré deux macrorelations : la première, exprimant le système monétaire international, détermine la volatilité du système des taux de change à partir de la « vitesse de rotation » des capitaux. La seconde, exprimant le système financier international, détermine cette vitesse à partir de la « volatilité structurelle » du système des taux de change. On arrive alors à déterminer de façon conjointe, comme des « valeurs d'équilibre », l'importance des opérations en capital sur les marchés des changes et la volatilité du système des taux de change. Dans une première partie, sont présentées les données empiriques. La deuxième partie propose la formalisation théo- rique des rapports entre volatilité des marchés et rotation des capitaux. La troisième partie cherche à valider le modèle théorique pour les principales monnaies constituant l'essentiel des activités sur les marchés des changes. [eng] This paper deals with two macro- relationships in a unified framework. The first one is related to the International Monetary System and defines the volatility of the exchange rates system as a function of the turnover in capital. The second one is related to the International Financial System and defines the turnover velocity as a function of the structural volatility of the exchange rates system. The model determines the equilibrium values for the two variables (volatility and velocity). The first part highlights the empirical data. The second part gives the theoretical framework explaining the relationships between volatility of exchange rates and turnover in capital. The third part tests the theoretical model for the main currencies traded in the foreign exchange markets.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

    Volume (Year): 14 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 87-120

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1999_num_14_4_1092
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1999.1092
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