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L'assainissement budgétaire au Danemark entre 1983 et 1986: l'anti-mythe

Listed author(s):
  • Jérôme Creel

[fre] Des économistes ont cru déceler dans l'économie danoise le paradigme des « contractions budgétaires expansionnistes ». L'intérêt pour le Danemark était alors dû à la simultanéité de trois phénomènes entre les années 1982 et 1986 : une reprise économique forte, une rigueur budgétaire brutale et la chute vertigineuse du taux d'épargne des ménages. Une telle situation était considérée comme un cas d'école de l'équivalence ricardienne. Nous démontrons pour notre part qu'une vision non ricardienne de la fonction de consommation privée est plus appropriée au cas danois. La libéralisation financière et le desserrement temporaire de la contrainte de liquidité sont en mesure d'expliquer l'évolution du taux d'épargne des ménages sur la période 1975- 1995. Quant à l'investissement privé, il subit un fort effet d'accélération. Le Danemark n'est donc pas un bon exemple pour affirmer le caractère non keynésien des politiques budgétaires. [eng] Some economists have viewed the Danish economy as a standard case for « expansionary fiscal contractions ». Interest for Denmark was due to the simultaneous occurrence of three phenomena between 1982 and 1986 : a strong economic recovery, a tough fiscal rigour and the collapse of the savings rate. Such a situation was considered as a textbook example of Ricardian equivalence. In our paper, we show however that a non-Ricardian private consumption function is more appropriate to the Danish case. Financial deregulation and the temporary smoothing of liquidity constraints explain why the savings rate has changed so much between 1975 and 1995. As for private investment, it has followed an accelerator effect. Hence, Denmark should not be quoted as a good example for asserting that fiscal policies have non-Keynesian effects.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

Volume (Year): 13 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 83-123

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1998_num_13_4_1069
Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1998.1069
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