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L'élargissement de l'Union européenne et la divergence entre économies en transition

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  • Jérôme Sgard
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    [fre] L'article part de deux constats. D'une part, la transition s'accompagne de divergences croissantes entre économies est-européennes, notamment depuis le début de la reprise dans l'industrie ; cette différenciation reflète pour partie la capacité variable à imposer un renforcement de la discipline financière et de la régulation juridique des échanges. D'autre part, il apparaît que les multiples instruments de soutien extérieur aux réformes sont mieux valorisés par les économies les plus avancées qui en ont de moins en moins en besoin ; inversement, les causes d'une transition difficile ou chaotique, comme dans les Balkans ou dans l'ancienne Union soviétique, semblent largement hors d'atteinte de l'aide internationale. Ceci conduit à la proposition que l'adhésion prioritaire à l'Union européenne des pays les mieux placés pourrait accentuer la divergence interne à l'Europe de l'Est : comme dans le cadre de l'Union monétaire, les « inclus » pourraient alors exercer des effets d'éviction puissants aux dépens des « exclus ». Nous envisageons huit canaux par lesquels ces effets pourraient s'exercer. [eng] The paper builds upon two lessons of the recent experience with transition in Eastern Europe. First, the development of reforms has witnessed increasing divergences between economies, especially since industrial production has started to pick up, at least in some on them. This partly reflects the uneven capacity to impose harder financial constraints as well as a strong contractual and legal regulation of economic transactions. Second, the capacity to absorb foreign economic assistance appears to be strongly linked with the capacity to restructure the domestic economy : the less an economy requires aid, the most efficient it is in using it. Conversely, the main causes for a difficult, or chaotic transition, as seen in the Balkan or in the former Soviet Union, appear to be largely out of reach of foreign assistance. This leads to the proposition that a stepwise enlargement of the EU towards the East, which would give priority to the most sucessfull countries, could further accentuate the divergences within Eastern Europe : as in the case of the European Monetary Union, the « ins » could end up crowding out dangerously the « outs ». Eight reasons for such adverse effects are put forwards.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

    Volume (Year): 12 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 177-202

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1997_num_12_2_1024
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1997.1024
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