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Taux d'intérêt et prix : paradoxe de Gibson ou phénomène de Kitchin ?

  • François Gardes
  • Pierre Levy

[fre] Le paradoxe de Gibson réside dans la contradiction entre le constat empirique régulier d'une évolution de même sens du taux d'intérêt et du niveau des prix d'une part, et certaines prédictions théoriques d'autre part. Nous rappelons ici les analyses statistiques et théoriques du sujet développées depuis plus d'un siècle. Sur le plan empirique, on expose les progrès graduels réalisés dans l'élaboration des données et leur traitement statistique. On vérifie au moyen des méthodes actuelles que les chiffres anciens font bien apparaître une corrélation positive entre intérêt et prix. Sur le plan théorique, on souligne l'existence de deux paradoxes distincts puisque cette corrélation contredit d'une part la prédiction d'un lien de sens contraire entre les deux variables, et d'autre part l'affirmation d'un lien du taux d'intérêt avec le taux d'inflation plutôt que le niveau des prix. On rappelle les solutions recherchées par Wicksell et Keynes dans le premier cas et par Fisher dans le second. [eng] The so-called Gibson paradox lies in the contradiction between repeated empirical results concerning the same pattern of evolution of interest rate and price level on the one hand, and some theoretical forecasts on the other hand. We recall statistical and theoretical analyses of the subject developed for more than a century. From the empirical point of view, we report the gradual improvement of both the production of data and their statistical treatment. We check with modern methods applied on previous data the existence of the positive correlation between interest rate and price level. From the theoretical point of view, we emphasize the existence of two distinct paradoxes insofar as this correlation denies on the one hand the forecast of an inverse relation between interest rate and price level, and on the other hand the statement of a relation between interest rate and the rate of inflation rather than the price level. We recall the solutions propounded by Wicksell and Keynes in the first case, and by Fisher in the second case.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

Volume (Year): 9 (1994)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 157-197

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1994_num_9_3_961
Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1994.961
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