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La convertibilité des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale à l'épreuve des faits

Listed author(s):
  • Henri Bourguinat

[fre] Les pays de l'Est ont obtenu des résultats très différents à la suite de leurs tentatives pour établir la convertibilité depuis maintenant trois ou quatre ans. Dans certains cas (Pologne, Tchécoslovaquie) les essais se sont soldés globalement par un succès, mais pour plusieurs autres pays, la route à suivre est très ardue (Bulgarie, Roumanie, Russie). Cet article s'intéresse d'abord aux différents niveaux de convertibilité et au fait que les pays pourraient parfaitement limiter la convertibilité aux transactions des comptes courants. Ensuite, il semble que les meilleurs résultats sont généralement liés à des réformes antérieures et à l'ampleur des dépréciations du taux de change. Enfin, ce papier souligne que le plus important, est de comprendre que la convertibilité est un élément essentiel du «package critique» de la réforme qui doit associer la libéralisation des prix, la démonopolisation du commerce extérieur et le libre établissement. Dans ce sens la convertibilité est au-dessus de l'opposition traditionnelle entre le gradualisme et la thérapie de choc. [eng] Embarking on the process of establishing convertibility since now three or four years, Eastern Countries have obtained very different results. In some cases (Poland, Csechoslovakia) the attempt is fairly a global success, but for several other countries a very arduous way (Bulgaria, Roumania, Russia). This paper first relates that there are different levels of convertibility and that countries could rightly limit convertibility to current account transactions. Second, it focuses that better performances are generally related to the earlier reforms and to large the magnitude of exchange rate depreciations. Third, it underlines too that the most important is to understand that convertibility is an essential element of the «critical package» of the reform which has to associate price liberalization-demonopolization of external trade and free settlements. In this sens convertibility is above the traditional opposition between gradualism and shock therapy.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

Volume (Year): 8 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 3-40

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1993_num_8_2_927
Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1993.927
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