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Analyse des comportements de substitutions énergétiques dans le secteur industriel des sept grands pays de l'OCDE

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  • Patricia Renou-Maissant
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    [fre] Dans cet article, nous étudions les substitutions énergétiques intervenues dans le secteur industriel hors sidérurgie des sept grands pays de l'OCDE sur la période 1960-1993 par l'intermédiaire des formes fonctionnelles flexibles Box-Cox généralisée et Fourier. Ces fonctions ont permis de mettre en exergue une modification des comportements sur la période révélant l'asymétrie de la demande d'énergie à une variation des prix énergétiques. En effet, dans un contexte de prix énergétiques particulièrement bas depuis 1986, la demande d'énergie finale stagne, voire régresse dans l'ensemble des pays. La chute du prix du pétrole ne s'est pas soldée par un recours accru au fuel dans l'industrie, ce qui traduit l'irréversibilité du savoir-faire technologique, une méfiance persistante vis-à-vis du pétrole et le désir de conserver un approvisionnement diversifié. [eng] An analysis of interfuel substitution in the industriel sector of seven major OECD countries The purpose of this article is to present an analysis of interfuel substitution in the industrial sector of seven major OECD countries over the 1960-1993 period. Flexible functional forms, such as generalized Box-Cox and Fourier are used to provide estimates of price elasticities from annual data for each country. Results outline changes in behavior over the last 35 years and show evidence of asymmetric effects. Since the collapse of oil price in 1986, substitution has stopped, industrial energy demand and oil consumption have stagnated, which points out the irreversible changes occurred after the oil shocks, suspicion towards oil and desire to preserve security of supplying.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

    Volume (Year): 53 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 983-1011

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2002_num_53_5_410457
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