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Vieillissement et inégalités intergénérationnelles en France. Une approche par l'équilibre général

  • Claire Loupias
  • Bertrand Crettez
  • Frédéric Docquier
  • Philippe Liégeois

[fre] Cet article examine l'impact du vieillissement démographique et de la politique budgétaire sur le bien-être des générations successives. Pour ce faire, on développe un modèle d'équilibre général à générations imbriquées. Ce dernier reproduit de façon très fine les projections de la structure de la population à l'horizon 2050 de l'INSEE, et tient par conséquent compte de la hausse de l'espérance de vie. La prise en compte de l'incertitude sur la durée de vie et des legs volontaires permet de reproduire les profils observés de patrimoine par classes d'âge. On construit un indicateur de bien-être pour chaque génération qui permet d'évaluer et de comparer cinq scénarios (hausse des cotisations pour permettre l'indexation des transferts sur la productivité, indexation modérée des transferts pour éviter la hausse des prélèvements obligatoires, constitution d'un fonds de réserve, augmentation de la dette publique, et hausse progressive de l'âge de la retraite). [eng] Aging and intergenerational inequality in France This paper investigates the impact of demographic shocks and budgetary policy on the welfare of all generations. For this purpose, we build a large scale OLG model that captures most crucial variables for the analysis of population shocks consequences in France. We introduce life uncertainty (implying precautionary saving) and a bequest motive (stimulating wealth accumulation at old age) so as to reproduce realistic wealth profiles per age. The microeconomic foundations provide an intertemporal indicator of welfare for each generation. Five policy scenarios are distinguished (indexation of pension through transfer adjustments, imperfect indexation of transfers on growth in order to keep the tax rate constant, the creation of an implicit fund, increase in the public debt, or increase in the retirement age).

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 53 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 767-786

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2002_num_53_4_410443
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.2002.410443
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