IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/reveco/reco_0035-2764_2002_num_53_3_410431.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La croissance potentielle de l'économie française. Une évaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Sébastien Doisy

Abstract

[fre] Cet article souligne le rôle des concepts de croissance potentielle et d'écart de production dans l'évaluation de la performance de l'économie française et dans la conduite des politiques macroéconomiques. Fondées sur une approche de type économique, les évaluations présentées suggèrent que la croissance potentielle de l'économie française - définie comme le rythme de croissance compatible avec une inflation stable - a été rehaussée au cours de la seconde moitié des années 1990, passant de 2 à 2,5 % par an. En 2000, après trois années de croissance forte, l'économie française a vraisemblablement comblé son retard de demande. L'accélération transitoire du potentiel d'offre s'explique par l'amélioration structurelle de l'emploi et le dynamisme récent de l'investissement. À moyen terme, ce rythme de croissance potentielle devrait perdurer et pourrait atteindre 3 % par an, dans l'hypothèse où l'investissement des entreprises resterait dynamique et les mesures d'aide au retour à l'emploi manifesteraient pleinement leurs effets sur le chômage structurel et les taux d'activité. [eng] Potential growth of the french economy - an assessment. . This paper reviews the use of potential growth and output gap estimates for the assessment of the structural performance of the french economy and the orientation of macroeconomic policies. Based on a production function approach, these estimates suggest that the potential growth of the french economy - i.e. the output growth rate consistent with a stable inflation rate—has raised during the second hall of the nineties from 2 to 2,5% yoy. Since 1997 the french economy has grown above potential, closing the output gap apparently in 2000. The raise of structural employment and the vigorous capital accumulation contributed to this transitory acceleration of potential output. In the medium run, this potential growth rate may be maintained and could raise to 3% yoy if investment remains strong and labour market reforms lead to the expected decline of structural unemployment and rise of the participation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Doisy, 2002. "La croissance potentielle de l'économie française. Une évaluation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 53(3), pages 611-624.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2002_num_53_3_410431
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.2002.410431
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/reco.2002.410431
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_2002_num_53_3_410431
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2002_num_53_3_410431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.