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Taux de change réel et démographie dans une petite économie ouverte

Listed author(s):
  • Karine Gente

[fre] Nous mettons en évidence une relation entre le taux de natalité et le taux de change réel, dans un modèle à générations imbriquées. Les propriétés de cette relation sont les suivantes. D'une part, la réduction du taux de natalité provoque l'appréciation du taux de change réel. D'autre part, une variation temporaire du taux de natalité a des effets durables sur le taux de change réel de moyen terme. Ces résultats permettent d'analyser les conséquences de la transition démographique - qui affecte les économies au cours du développement - ou du baby-boom sur le taux de change réel. [eng] Demography and real exchange rate in a small open economy We focus on the relation between the real exchange rate and the birth rate in an overlapping generations setting. This relation has the following properties. First, a reduction of the birth rate entails an appreciation of the real exchange rate. Second, a temporary birth rate shock has durable effects on the medium-run real exchange rate. These results enable to investigate the consequences of the demographic transition - which affects an economy during the development process - or of the baby-boom on the real exchange rate.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 52 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 531-539

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_3_410334
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