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When to Leave a Monetary Union?

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  • Frank Strobel

Abstract

[fre] Quand quitter une union monétaire?. . À l'aide d'un modèle d'union monétaire à deux pays où les autorités politiques minimisent l'équivalent, en temps continu, d'une fonction de perte de type Barro-Gordon, on examine la valeur de l'option associée à l'éclatement d'une telle union. Les paramètres nationaux de préférence associés à une inflation surprise suivent des mouvements browniens géométriques corrélés. On dérive la valeur critique du ratio de ces paramètres au-delà de laquelle il y a désintégratrion monétaire : un pays aura tendance à vouloir retrouver son indépendance monétaire seulement si les préférences relatives en termes d'inflation de l'autre pays sont strictement (parfois considérablement) supérieures à une valeur de référence qui dépend uniquement du coût de désintégration monétaire. [eng] Using a two-country model of monetary union where policymakers minimize the continuous-time equivalent of a Barro-Gordon-type loss function, we examine the value of the option of monetary disintegration when the national preference parameters associated with an inflationary surprise follow correlated geometric Brownian motions. We derive the critical level of the ratio of these parameters that triggers a move to monetary disintegration and find that a country will be willing to return to monetary independence only if the other country's relative inflation preferences are strictly, and potentially substantially, greater than a benchmark value depending on the cost of monetary disintegration alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Strobel, 2001. "When to Leave a Monetary Union?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(2), pages 389-397.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_2_410323
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Strobel, 2005. "Leaving EMU: a real options perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1449-1453.
    2. Strobel, Frank, 2005. "Monetary integration and inflation preferences: A real options analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 845-860, May.
    3. Francesco Menoncin & Marco Tronzano, 2005. "Is a Monetary Union a Never-Ending Story?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(1), pages 25-49.

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