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Les effets de la coordination et de la coopération internationales sur le déclenchement des crises de change spéculatives

  • Olivier Loisel
  • Philippe Martin

[eng] The effects of international coordination and cooperation on the triggering of speculative exchange rate crises. . We analyse the effects of international coordination and cooperation on the trigger action and the contagion of currency crises, in a three-country model built on the 'escape clause' approach of fixed exchange rate systems. We show that coordination decreases the possibility of self-fulfilling expectations of simultaneous speculative crises in the region and reduces the set of multiple equilibria, but that it may however induce more contagion. The effect of cooperation is qualitatively similar to that of coordination, but quantitatively still more important. However, in order to get credible vis-a-vis the private agents, cooperation requires the settlement of a heavy commitment technology, for example a supranational organization which enforces the agreement. [fre] Nous analysons les effets de la coordination et de la coopération internationales sur le déclenchement et ta contagion des crises de change, dans le cadre d'un modèle à trois pays bâti sur l'approche « clause de sortie » des systèmes de changes fixes. Nous montrons que la coordination réduit la possibilité d'anticipations auto-réalisatrices de crises spéculatives simultanées dans la région et restreint l'ensemble des équilibres multiples, mais qu'elle peut renforcer le risque de contagion. L'effet de la coopération est qualitativement semblable à celui de la coordination, mais quantitativement plus important encore. Toutefois, pour être crédible vis-à-vis des agents privés, la coopération requiert la mise en place d'un lourd dispositif de commitment, par exemple sous la forme d'une organisation internationale chargée de faire respecter l'accord.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 52 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 233-248

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_2_410312
Note: DOI:10.2307/3503046
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/reco

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