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Règles de politique monétaire et objectif de PIB nominal. Application au cas français

Listed author(s):
  • Jean-Jacques Durand
  • Nathalie Payelle
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    [fre] Règles de politique monétaire et objectif de PIB nominal. Application au cas français Pour atteindre l'objectif final de stabilité des prix, plusieurs règles de politique monétaire sont envisageables. Une attention croissante est portée aujourd'hui à la solution proposée par McCallum, reposant sur un objectif intermédiaire de PIB nominal. Cet article se propose de rappeler les justifications théoriques d'une telle règle, puis d'en tester les performances dans le cas français. Il s'agit alors de comparer les résultats que la mise en œuvre de cette règle aurait pu engendrer, avec ceux obtenus par la politique monétaire effectivement menée, entre 1978 et 1996. Malgré toutes ses limites, l'étude économétrique indique qu'en France ce type de règle pourrait sans doute permettre d'assurer la stabilité des prix, tout en limitant les fluctuations du PIB réel. [eng] Rules for monetary policy and nominal gnp targeting. application to the french case Different monetary policy rules have been considered, in order to achieve the ultimate goal of price stability. The solution proposed by McCallum, based on the nominal GNP as intermediate target, is giving rise to an increasing interest. After outlining the theoretical justifications of such a rule, this article attempts to test its potential performance, in the trench case. More precisely, the simulation results are compared with those effectively obtained by the monetary policy conducted between 1978 and 1996. We have to be very cautious about this econometric study, which presents some unavoidable limits. However, its results suggest that a rule of McCallum's type, applied in France, could probably ensure price stability, while limiting the fluctuations of real GNP.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

    Volume (Year): 49 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 665-675

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1998_num_49_3_409999
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