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Forces et faiblesses de la reprise des marchés émergents

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  • Henri Bourguinat
  • Nabil Menaï

Abstract

[eng] Strengths and deficiences of emerging markets. . This paper, written during 1996 summer, investigates strenghs and deficiencies of emerging markets just after the mexican crisis and before Asian market ones. It revelates that, after 1994, their rapid revival was motivated by a large growth differential which benefited to "second world" countries. This swing provi­ded a more stronger motive than before to their developpment. The risk premium measure demonstrates that, since 1995, it became quite interesting to diversify inside of the emerging market group itself.. Nevertheless, this recovery after the "Tequila effect" has no to hidden the serious and recurrent deficiencies of these emerging markets. Not only real exchange rate misalignments, but desadjustment of external capital with internal ones and proportion of short term capitals with long term investments too, are to be mentionned. Weakness of financial sector appears to be an other important destabilizing factor. [fre] Forces et faiblesses de la reprise des marchés émergents. . Cet article, rédigé durant l'été de 1996, analyse les forces et les faiblesses des marchés émergents après la crise mexicaine et juste avant celle de l'Asie du Sud-Est. Il fait apparaître que la rapide reprise des flux de capitaux après 1994 a tenu à un véritable basculement de la croissance des pays du « second monde » qui a donné à la diversification des portefeuilles un fondement beaucoup plus fort qu'auparavant. L'analyse des primes de risque révèle aussi l'intérêt, après 1995, à se diversifier à l'intérieur même du groupe. Néanmoins, la reprise de ces marchés après l'« onde Tequila » ne devait pas cacher les importantes faiblesses récurrentes tenant aux évolutions du change réel, mais aussi à d'autres phénomènes tels que l'inarticulation des entrées de capitaux avec l'épargne interne, la faiblesse du système financier ou le dosage capitaux courts-investissements à long terme.

Suggested Citation

  • Henri Bourguinat & Nabil Menaï, 1998. "Forces et faiblesses de la reprise des marchés émergents," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(1), pages 51-74.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1998_num_49_1_409963
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    1. Henri Bourguinat & Nabil Menai, 1994. "Les marchés émergents : une analyse en terme de risque-rendement," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 29(2), pages 25-40.
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