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Auto-validation des changements de parité en régulation monopoliste

Listed author(s):
  • André Orléan

[fre] Après avoir dégagé certains présupposés méthodologiques inclus implicitement dans l'hypothèse d'exogénéité de la masse monétaire, cet article étudie comment ils affectent notre compréhension théorique des mouvements du change. Se plaçant dans le cadre d'une régulation monopoliste, et abandonnant donc cette hypothèse d'exogénéité, la formation de la parité apparaît au cœur d'une structure de conflits pour le partage du revenu, mettant aux prises plusieurs groupes d'agents. Cette dynamique conflictuelle engendre un processus d'auto-validation des variations de parité. Celui-ci s'exprime dans le fait que les chocs exogènes qui affectent dans le court terme le marché des changes ne se résorbent nullement dans le moyen terme. Modifiant la répartition des revenus, ils déclenchent des dynamiques nomi­nales d'ajustement validées par les autorités monétaires, qui s'inscrivent alors de manière irréversible dans le cheminement de moyen terme. L'instabilité des changes trouve ainsi dans le contexte intérieur une large base. [eng] Self-validation of exchange rates movements In a monopolistic regulation André Orléan This article analyses how our theorical understanding of exchange rate movements is affected by the hypothesis of exogeneity of rnoney supply. In this paper this dssnniption is released as we suppose that thé economy is functionning under a monopolistic regulation. In this case the détermination of the exchange rate depends on a spécific structure of conflicts generated by the distribution of income. This conflictual dynamics leads to a « self-validation » of exchange rate fluctuations. This « self-validation » means that exogen disiurbances are not transitory, even in the long run. They set in motion nominal ajusting processes, supported by the rnonetary authorities, that affect irreversibly the long run path. Such a dynamics partly explains the instability of exchange market.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 33 (1982)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 323-338

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_2_408654
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  1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. " The Theory of Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 255-275.
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