Exigences et limites d' une dévaluation du franc

[eng] SUMMARY Economists frequently asserted that inequalities that have been existing since 1951 between French and foreign prices and the subsidies granted to increase exportations made the devaluation of the French franc not only unavoidable but beneficial The authors of this article express some misgivings about the grounds of this proposition for the period between 1950 and 1955 As regards the necessity of devaluation the estimation of the external value of the franc through eight different methods according to the official quotations of currencies to the changes of prices to the change of the real average income to the variety of the structure of the national spen- dings... show only that the official parity takes place between the maxima and minima worked out through these different methods The unavoidable character of devaluation is not evident when reading these results it is even less when loolting at the improvement in the French economic situa tion as it has been during the last Vwo years As regards the salutary effects of devaluation upon the French eco nomy neither experience nor economic analysis allow us to reach an iini- vocal conclusion The deficiency of the income approach show once more that the effects of devaluation are based upon the value of some élasticités which are very difficult to measure But most of the time the immediate effects of devaluation the improvement of the trade balance and the deterioration of the terms of trade counterbalance each other As for the mediate effects upon the real income and its distribution the capital movements and infla tion they will be different according to the nature and the direction of the immediate effects and thence to the elasticities and also to the struc ture of the economy which is examined So the expectation of French economic expansion after devaluation rough and blind method is more an act of faith than scientific anticipation It seems better to commit this economic expansion to measures of an internal policy