De la dynamique des structures à la dynamique des systèmes

[eng] In short-terui economic analysis one always considers structures as given This does not imply that une denies the existence of short-time structural effects on the contrary recent models of the trade cycle nearly always emphasise some teehnieai or institutional bottleneck tlie role of which is to change the explosive motion resulting from the basic hypothesis into an oscillatory motion which ressembles more closely the economic reality Hicks Goodwin) But if these structural effects are discovered and utilized in the short- term analysis they are not explained therein It is therefore the role of long-term analysis to appraise not only the consequences but also the causes of structural tensions In long period structural changes become themselves perceptible for the economic subject This subject realizes that tlie various structural variables technical economical demographical ins titutional social and mental are not carried away with the saine speed and are not equally malleable In opposition with konjunktur variations these structural variations are of qualitative uafure they are endowed with discontinuous and irreversible characters However this is not ways true for certain institutional variations liite customs are reversible even if their effects on economic structure are not If the structure of production economic) monetary and credit struc tures institutional and the income structure social appear as long-term dependent variables other structures represent real initiating forces as for instance the following technichs population and ideology Their motion appears to be autonomous although they undergo in reality the influence of the economic and historical konjunktur Lastly an economic system is coherent complex of these various struc tures which is principally defined by technical frame socio-juridical pattern and dominant motive Is it not then legitimate to consider its evo lution as consequence of the solution of the Incompatibilities created by the inequality of development of these structures But what is the definition of coherent system and compatible structures Do systems like the capi talist system or the planned economy contain various types of compati bility or various structural combinations How does one pass from coherent complex to another If distorsions are too great drastic mutations can be foreseen Far East India Arab States If there are possibilities of adaptation of old structures to new progressive ones then alterations occur in the direction of progress There is stagnation even regression if the progressive structure technical does not develop because of insuffi cient impulse of other factors ageeing and stagnating population decline in acceptation of risk in France between the last world wars etc. Planning which aspires today to become structural rather than conjunc- tural only as in the thirties must become more ambitious in order to prevent the regressive adaptations from overcoming progressive adaptations