IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/recofi/ecofi_0987-3368_2009_num_95_2_5353.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La Chine va se redresser mais sa consommation restera insuffisante

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Dumas

Abstract

[fre] La Chine est le principal contributeur à la surabondance d’épargne des pays d’Eurasie qui ont conduit aux excédents d’un montant de $ 1 250 milliards et donc aux liquidités abondantes et aux taux d’intérêt bas qui ont alimenté la bulle des dettes américaines. Une fois les excès d’endettement du secteur privé américain stoppés, le processus de récession mondiale qui en a découlé ne pouvait être renversé que par un endettement de l’État américain ou par une stimulation de la demande intérieure des pays excédentaires, en particulier la Chine. Mais les mesures massives de relance, tant fiscales que monétaires, des autorités chinoises ont été concentrées très majoritairement sur l’investissement et non sur la consommation qui permettrait de réduire drastiquement l’épargne chinoise qui culmine à des niveaux stratosphériques, plus de 50 % du PIB. Alors que le boom de la construction pourrait conduire à accroître la consommation, il pourrait aussi faire naître un autre risque s’il dépasse la capacité financière des ménages. Pendant ce temps, les efforts pour augmenter les dépenses en capital pourraient se révéler déflationnistes ou pourraient finir par réduire la rentabilité des exportations. Sans un revirement permettant de développer la consommation, la reprise chinoise, bien que vigoureuse, pourrait faire long feu. . Classification JEL : H5, O5. [eng] China’s to recover but its consumption is to remain insufficient . China is the largest contributor to the Eurasian savings glut that produced 2007-08 surpluses of $ 1,250 billion, providing the easy money and low interest rates that fuelled the US debt bubble. Once US private borrowing excesses stopped, the resulting world recession could only be reversed either by US government borrowing, or stimulation of domestic demand in savings-glut countries, notably China. But China’s massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is concentrated almost entirely on investment - not on the consumption needed to get its savings down from their recent stratospheric, over - 50% of GDP. While the housing boom should lead to greater consumption, it risks another bubble, potentially exceeding people’s capacity to pay. Meanwhile boosts to business capital spending could be deflationary and erode export profitability : the cutting edge of China’s economy. Without a shift of emphasis to promote consumption, China’s recovery, though vigorous, could prove short-lived. . Classification JEL : H5, O5.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Dumas, 2009. "La Chine va se redresser mais sa consommation restera insuffisante," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 189-206.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2009_num_95_2_5353
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.2009.5353
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2009.5353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ecofi.2009.5353
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ecofi_0987-3368_2009_num_95_2_5353
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/ecofi.2009.5353?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2009_num_95_2_5353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ecofi .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.