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Les modes d’équilibrage des systèmes de retraite : éléments analytiques du débat

Listed author(s):
  • Didier Blanchet

[fre] On analyse les quatre modes principaux d'équilibrage des retraites face aux changements démographiques à venir. Ne jouer que sur le niveau de vie relatif des retraités conduirait à l'abaisser considérablement. Ne jouer que sur la hausse des cotisations semble plus envisageable, mais ce serait au détriment d'autres besoins collectifs, et on ne peut garantir que cette politique serait neutre pour l'emploi. La capitalisation consiste à anticiper la hausse de l'effort contributif : son seul avantage est que l'effort requis sera plus faible à long terme si le rendement du capital est durablement supérieur à la croissance économique. Remonter l'âge de la retraite, pour finir, serait une réponse logique à l'allongement de la durée de vie mais ne jouer que sur cet instrument supposerait, là encore, un ajustement considérable. Au final, la réponse aux contraintes démographiques jouera probablement sur un panachage des quatre outils. Classification JEL : D3, H55, J22, J26 [eng] Restoring equilibrium in pension systems : an analytical presentation We analyze the four main possibilities for restoring equilibrium of pension schemes in front of future demographic changes. Relying exclusively on a downward adjustment of pensions would imply a very large reduction of pensioners' relative standard of living. Relying exclusively on increases of contributions seems more realistic, but this would be at the expense of other social needs, and the neutrality of such a policy for employment levels cannot be warranted. Funding consists in anticipating requested financial efforts : its only advantage is that this financial effort will be lower in the long run, if returns on capital are permanently higher than economic growth. Raising the retirement age, at last, would be a logical answer to an increasing life expectancy, bur relying exclusively on this tool would, once again, imply a very large adjustment. On the whole, the answer to demographic changes will, probably, require a mix of these four instruments. JEL classification : D3, H55, J22, J26

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie financière.

Volume (Year): 68 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 55-65

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Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2002_num_68_4_4771
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2002.4771
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