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Investissement et contrainte financière

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  • Gérard Maarek

Abstract

[eng] Investment and financial restraint . Typically, conventional econometrics fails to highlight a causal link between debt ratios and investment expenditures, against the intuition of banks and firms practicians. A different approach is proposed here. The "financial restraint" is not incorporated in the debt ratios, but in an hypothesis about the indebtness dynamics : in permanent regulation, the rate of interest must be larger than the debt growth rate. In other terms, the "financial balance" of indebted agents, i.e. the difference between the new borrowing and the debt service, must be negative. This rule of financial orthodoxy has been constantly frustrated in the sixties and the seventies, through the markets management and the inflation drift. In force again in the early eighties, this role forced the debtors to a restrictive effort, mainly on their investment expenditures. The study of the trench industry accounts and the recent trends of the developing countries gives some plausibility to that thesis. [fre] L'économétrie classique échoue en général à révéler un lien de causabilité entre taux d'endettement et dépenses d'investissement, contredisant en cela l'intuition des praticiens de la banque et de l'entreprise. Une approche différente est proposée, qui fait s'exprimer la « contrainte financière » non dans le taux d'endettement, mais dans une condition portant sur la dynamique de la dette : en régime permanent, le taux d'intérêt doit être supérieur au taux de croissance de la dette ou encore le « solde financier » des agents endettés, différence entre les emprunts nouveaux et le service de la dette, doit être négatif. Or cette règle de l'orthodoxie financière a pu être constamment déjouée pendant les années soixante et soixante-dix, grâce à l'administration des marchés et à la dérive inflationniste. À nouveau en vigueur au début de la décennie quatre-vingt, elle a obligé les débiteurs à un effet d'austérité qui a porté prioritairement sur leurs dépenses d'investissement.

Suggested Citation

  • Gérard Maarek, 1988. "Investissement et contrainte financière," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 5(2), pages 190-199.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_1988_num_5_2_4656
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.1988.4656
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.1988.4656
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