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Dynamique des opinions et marchés de capitaux : impact sur le financement des activités innovantes

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  • Olivier Bruno
  • Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand

Abstract

[eng] This paper aims at analyzing the impact of capital markets dynamics on the financing of technological change. This approach is based on the existence of beliefs dynamics caused by a contagion process. We develop a model focusing on agents' heterogeneity considering that there is a diversity of a priori individual opinions on the future returns of innovating activity. The model generates an original dynamics which is the source of under- or over-investment processes in innovating activities. We show that these waves of overinvestment can lead to a greater economic instability. Those elements seem to be confirmed by empirical observations of the recent evolution of investment in ITC activities. [fre] L'objectif de ce papier est d'analyser l'impact de la dynamique des marchés de capitaux sur le financement du changement technologique. Cette approche se fonde sur l'existence d'une dynamique des opinions engendrée par un processus de contagion. Plus spécifiquement, nous développons un modèle qui met l'accent sur l'importance de l'hétérogénéité des agents en considérant qu'il existe une diversité a priori des opinions individuelles sur la rentabilité future d'une activité innovante. Le modèle engendre une dynamique originale, source de phénomènes de sous-investissements ou de sur-investissement dans les activités innovantes. On montre que ces phases de sur-investissement peuvent par ailleurs s'accompagner d'une plus grande instabilité économique. Ces éléments semblent confirmés par l'observation de révolution récente du processus d'investissement dans les NTIC.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Bruno & Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand, 2004. "Dynamique des opinions et marchés de capitaux : impact sur le financement des activités innovantes," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, vol. 107(1), pages 195-213.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:recind:rei_0154-3229_2004_num_107_1_3055
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rei.2004.3055
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