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Un scénario pour l'emploi régional : Nord, Nord-Est et Massif central seront encore les plus touchés

Author

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  • Alberto Lopez

Abstract

[spa] Un escenario para el empleo regional el IMorte, el Noreste y el Macizo central seguirán siendo las regiones más afectadas - Desde ahora hasta 1 992, el empleo deberia disminuir considerablemente en las regiones del Norte, del Noreste y del Macizo central. Tales datos surgen de las previsiones de la tendencia laboral efectuadas por intermedio del modelo SPORE. Las zonas de Lorraine y Pas-de-Calais deberian resultar afectadas en forma particular por la baja del empleo industrial. La industria de esas zonas se apoya en sectores que retroceden a escala nacional. Por el contrario, la disminución del crecimiento del empleo terciario prevista a nivel nacional deberia repercutir uniformemente en las distintas regiones. El empleo en el sector agricola continuará declinando. Las pérdidas podrian llegar a ser considerables en las regiones de Limousin y Bretana en las que el peso de la agricultura es determinante. [fre] D'ici à 1992, l'emploi pourrait décroître fortement dans le Nord, le Nord-Est, et le Massif central. C'est du moins ce qui ressort de la régionalisation des perspectives nationales d'emploi effectuées avec le modèle SPORE. La Lorraine et le Nord - Pas-de-Calais seraient particulièrement touchés par la chute de l'emploi industriel. L'industrie de ces régions s'appuie, en effet, sur des secteurs qui régressent au plan national. En revanche, le ralentissement de la croissance de l'emploi tertiaire retracé au niveau national se répercuterait assez uniformément sur les régions. L'emploi agricole continuera à décliner; les pertes devraient être particulièrement lourdes dans le Limousin et en Bretagne, régions où le poids de l'agriculture est déterminant. [eng] A scenario for regional employment the « Nord », the « Nord-Est » and the « Massif Central » will still be the most affected - Between now and 1 992, employment will probably decrease significantly in the regions of « Nord », « Nord-Est » and « Massif central ». This is at least what comes out of the trends predicted with the spore model. The regions of the « Lorraine » and the « Nord - Pas-de- Calais » will probably be particularly affected by the fall in industrial employment. In these regions, industry actually relies on sectors generally in decline. On the other hand the slowing growth of tertiary employment predicted at the national level will probably be more or less the same in every region. Employment in agriculture will continue to decline, losses being particularly heavy in the regions of « Limousin » and « Bretagne » where agricultural activity is determining.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Lopez, 1987. "Un scénario pour l'emploi régional : Nord, Nord-Est et Massif central seront encore les plus touchés," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 205(1), pages 17-27.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1987_num_205_1_5148
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1987.5148
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1987.5148
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    1. Elisabeth Martin-Le Goff & Olivier Marchand, 1988. "Avec le développement des stages, la France ne perd plus d'emplois depuis 1985," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 209(1), pages 3-13.

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