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Les risques d'accidents de la route

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  • Gilbert Thiry

Abstract

[fre] Au cours d'une année, la probabilité moyenne d'avoir un accident donnant lieu à remboursement de la part d'une société d'assurance est de 152 %„. Mais ce risque d'accident varie considérablement, selon des critères tenant autant à l'automobile qu'à son conducteur. Le premier responsable des différences que l'on relève, à propos des fréquences annuelles de sinistre, est le kilométrage parcouru. Élevée pour de faibles distances parcourues, la fréquence annuelle passe par un minimum pour 3 à 4 000 kilomètres dans l'année; elle progresse ensuite avec le kilométrage. Mais les conducteurs qui roulent le plus s'avèrent être les plus sûrs à distance effectuée égale. La position professionnelle du conducteur habituel influe elle aussi sur le risque de sinistre; des agriculteurs, qui sont le moins souvent accidentés, aux étudiants, qui le sont le plus. Par ailleurs, on constate que les moins de 25 ans ont beaucoup plus d'accidents que leurs aînés. Plus surprenant sans doute, il convient de mettre au rang des facteurs aggravants en matière de fréquence d'accidents le fait d'avoir acquis son automobile d'occasion, celui de garer son véhicule sur la voie publique, de souhaiter rouler vite, d'être hostile à la ceinture de sécurité. [spa] Riesgo de accidentes de carretera - En el transcurso de un año, el promedio de probabilidad de sufrir un accidente que dé lugar a reembolso por parte de una compania de seguros es del 152%,. Mas este riesgo de accidente varía considerablemente en funciôn de criterios relativos tanto al automóvil como al que lo guía. El primer responsable de las desemejanzas observadas con relación a frecuencia anual de accidente es el número de kilómetros recorridos. Elevada con relación a breves recorridos, la frecuencia anual pasa por un mínimo de 3 a 4 000 kilómetros al ano; se incrementa a continuación según los kilómetros recorridos. Mas los automovilistas que se desplazan con mayor frecuencia suelen ser los mis seguros para un recorrido semejante. La posición profesional del automovilista habitual influye igualmente en el riesgo de accidente; los agricultores sufren menos accidentes mientras que los estudiantes experimentan un mayor número de ellos. Es factible además observar que los menores de 25 años sufren muchos más accidentes que los mayores. Si bien résulta algo sorprendente, conviene tener en cuenta que los vehíulos de segunda mano, el aparcarlos en la vía pública, el afán de conducir con velocidad y el ser refractario a la correa de auxilio constituyen factores que multiplican la frecuencia de los accidentes. [eng] The Odds of Having an Automobile Accident - In a given year, the average probability of having a car accident involving a settlement by an insurance company is 152 ‰. However, the chances of having an accident vary considerably depending on a number of factors, which go from the kind of car driven to who is driving it. The most outstanding factor related to the frequency of accidents is number of miles driven yearly. Although the accident rate tends to be high for low mileages, the fewest number of accidents take place within the 3 to 4,000 kilometers per year; but the rate begins to rise rapidly after that. Nevertheless those who drive the greatest distances over a year emerge as being the safest drivers per mile driven. The occupation of regular drivers also effects the probability of having an accident — farmers tend to have the fewest accidents, while students have the most. In general, those under 25 have a far greater number of accidents than those over this age. What is more surprising, no doubt, is that such factors as having a second-hand car, parking in the street, or not using seat belts seem to increase the frequency of accidents.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert Thiry, 1979. "Les risques d'accidents de la route," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 117(1), pages 13-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1979_num_117_1_4293
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1979.4293
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1979.4293
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Join-Lambert & Claude Thélot, 1981. "Les ménages roulent plus, les voitures roulent moins," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 136(1), pages 43-51.

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