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DMS, modèle de prévision à moyen terme

Listed author(s):
  • Jean-Michel Charpin
  • Denis Fouquet
  • Pierre-Alain Muet
  • Henri Guillaume
  • Dominique Vallet
Registered author(s):

    [fre] DMS (Dynamique, Multi-Sectoriel), conçu au service des Programmes de l'INSEE est destiné à servir de modèle central lors de l'élaboration des prochaines projections à moyen terme. Son utilisation est également envisagée pour réaliser des projections pluri-annuelles glissantes, c'est- à-dire reprises chaque année en incorporant l'information statistique nouvelle et en décalant d'un an l'horizon de la projection. Prenant la suite de FIFI, le modèle DMS s'efforce de répondre aux préoccupations nouvelles du Commissariat général du Plan : — modèle de cheminement, il indique comment l'enchaînement d'une suite d'équilibres annuels» permet de comprendre l'évolution économique à moyen terme; — multisectoriel, le modèle retient une décontraction du système productif en onze secteurs. Par ailleurs le découpage de l'industrie en trois sous-secteurs (biens intermédiaires, biens d'équipement, biens de consommation) traduit le souci de mieux cerner les spécificités structurelles de l'industrie; — enfin la description du comportement d'investissement des entreprises est améliorée : DMS donne un rôle central à l'intensité de l'utilisation des équipements et à la contrainte de rentabilité du capital en valeur. Les premières utilisations de ce nouveau modèle devraient intervenir pendant l'automne 1976. [eng] DMS, medium term forecasting model - DMS (Dynamique, Multi-Sectoriel), conceived in the Program Division of INSEE is destined to serve as the central model in the forthcoming elaboration of medium-term economic forecasts. Another use of the model will be to provide annual revisions in these forecasts in the future as new statistical information becomes available. As the heir to FIFI, the model DMS is intended to meet the new preoccupations of the Central Commission of the Plan : — being a dynamic model, it shows the interaction between successive annual equilibria, thus helping to understand the evolution during the period of the Plan; — being, multisectoral, the model divides the production branch into eleven sectors. Also, the use of three main sub-divisions of the productive branch (intermediate goods, equipment, final goods) permits a better. isolation of the structural characteristics of industry; — further the description of investment behavior is superior : DMS gives a central role to the intensity of utilization of equipment and the rate of return on capital. The first practical use of the model should be in the fall of 1976. [spa] DMS, modelo de prevision a medio plazo - DMS (Dinámico, Multi-Sectorial) concebido por el servicio de programas del INSEE estádes tinado a servir de modelo central para las próximas proyeeciones a medio plazo. Su utilización está igualmente - prevista para realizar proyeeciones : pluri-anuales revisadas, anualmente; es decir, incorporan cada ano la nueva información estadistica y amplian de un ano el horizonte de la proyección. Siguiendo el modelo FIFI, DMS se esfuerza en responder a la nuevas preocupaciones del Commissariat Général du Plan : — Modelo de seguimiento, indica como el encadenamiento seguido de equilibrios anuales permiten comprender la evolución económica a medio plazo; — Multi Sectorial, el modelo comprende una desagregación del sistema productivo en once sectores. Por otra parte la division de la industria en tres subsectores (bienes intermedios, bienes de capital, bienes de consumo) traduce la preocupación de explicar mejor las especifidades estructurales de la industria. — En fin la descripción del comportamiento de la inversion de las empresas esta mejorada : DMS dá un rol central a la intensidad de la utilización de los equipos y al vinculo de la rentabilidad del capital en valor. La primera utilización de este nuevo modelo deberá realizarse en el otono, de 1976.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/estat.1976.2342
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/estat_0336-1454_1976_num_79_1_2342
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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Economie et statistique.

    Volume (Year): 79 (1976)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 33-48

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1976_num_79_1_2342
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1976.2342
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/estat

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