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Les budgets économiques et leur réalisation

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    [fre] En annexe au projet de loi de finances déposé au Parlement à l'automne de chaque année figure une prévision de l'évolution économique attendue pour l'année suivante. L'étude de la direction de la Prévision condensée dans cet article porte sur la comparaison entre ces budgets économiques et les comptes provisoires de la Nation établis au printemps suivant de l'année étudiée. Dans une première partie figure un rappel de la nature des budgets économiques à la fois prévision et; programme de politique économique et est défini la méthodologie suivie dans l'étude qui s'appuie en particulier sur les travaux réalisés au Central Plan bureau néerlandais par M. Theil et permet de déceler le caractère plus ou moins systématique des erreurs. Sont ensuite présentés des exemples de l'analyse des écarts pour quelques grandeurs caractéristiques des prévisions puis une tentative de mesure synthétique de l'impact de ces erreurs prises individuellement sur la qualité d'ensemble de la prévision, résumée par l'évolution du niveau de la PIB en valeur. [eng] Economic budgets and their achievement - An appendix to the money-bill presented before Parliament every year in autumn includes a forecast of the economic evolution expected the following year. The study, carried out by Direction de la Prévision, condensed herewith, compares the economic budgets with the provisional social accounts drawn up during the spring following the year which was examined. Part I recalls the character of the economic budgets which are at one and the same time forecast and economic policy programm. Furthermore, Part I contains as well a définition of the methodology applied in the study, relying especially on works carried into effect by Mr Theil of the Dutch Centraal Plan-bureau and thus allowing to show the more or less systematic character of errors. Afterwards, one can find examples of the analysis of gaps within a few characteristic items of forecast and an endeavour to measure synthetically the impact of these errors, taken one by one, upon the general value of the forecast, summarized by the evolution, in value, of gross domestic product. [spa] Los presupuestos económicos y su realización - El anexo al proyecto de Ley de Finanzas, presentado anualmente en el otono, ante el Parlamento consta de una prevision relativa al desarrollo económico esperado para el ano siguiente." El estudio realizado por la Direction de la Prévision, resenado en el presente artículo, abarca la equiparación entre dichos presupuestos y las cuentas provisionales nacionales elaboradas en la primavera que sigue el ano estudiado. La primera parte incluye una resena de la composición de los presupuestos econômicos que se averiguan a la par prevision y programa de politica económica, asi como una defínición de la metodologia aplicada al estudio, la cual estriba particularmente en los trabajos llevados a cabo por el Sr. Theil del Centraal Plan-bureau neerlandés y que permite descubrir el carácter mis o menos sistemático de los errores. A continuación, ván expuestos unos cuantos ejemplos del análisis de las desviaciones de unas cuantas magnitudes características de las previsiones, así como un intento de medición sintética del impacto que esos errores tienen, tornados numéricamente, sobre el valor general de la prevision resenada por la evolución, en valor, del nivel del producto interior bruto.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/estat.1975.1766
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/estat_0336-1454_1975_num_70_1_1766
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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Economie et statistique.

    Volume (Year): 70 (1975)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 33-46

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1975_num_70_1_1766
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1975.1766
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/estat

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