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La croissance optimale d'une économie confrontée à un risque de catastrophe écologique

Listed author(s):
  • Morgane Chevé

[fre] Dans cet article nous développons un modèle de croissance optimale d'une économie dont les activités productives sont à l'origine d'émissions polluantes qui dégradent le bien-être des ménages. De plus, l'accumulation de la pollution induit un risque de catastrophe écologique ayant des effets irréversibles sur l'activité économique. Dans ce cadre, nous montrons que la présence de rendements constants dans la production et la disponibilité d'activités de dépollution efficaces ne suffisent plus à garantir que l'économie puisse atteindre une croissance durable à long terme. Par ailleurs, le risque de catastrophe écologique induit un comportement plus conservateur au sens où les émissions polluantes sont réduites. Cette réduction des émissions est d'autant plus forte que la probabilité de catastrophe est importante et/ou que les conséquences de la catastrophe sont graves. [eng] Optimum Growth of an Economy Facing the Risk of Ecological Disaster by Morgane Chevé In this paper we develop an optimum growth model for an economy whose economic activities generate pollution emissions which reduce household well-being. Furthermore, the build-up of pollution causes a risk of ecological disaster with irreversible consequences for economic activity. In this context we show that constant output and effective pollution abatement are no longer sufficient to guarantee that the economy will be able to achieve sustainable long-term growth. In addition, the risk of ecological disaster induces a more conservative attitude with pollution emissions being reduced. This reduction is all the greater if there is a high probability of disaster and/or its consequences will be serious.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 143 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 69-81

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_143_2_6005
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2000.6005
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