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Une approche bilatérale des réalignements au sein du Mécanisme de change européen (mars 1979 - décembre 1992)

Listed author(s):
  • Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte
  • Marc-Alexandre Sénégas

[fre] Une approche bilatérale des réalignements au sein du Mécanisme de change européen (mars 1979 - décembre 1992) par Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte et Marc- Alexandre Sénégas Dans cet article, nous présentons un modèle de réalignement du cours de change dans une zone cible bilatérale. Cette modélisation se situe au confluent de deux courants d'analyse : les zones cibles et les crises de balance des paiements. À partir de ce cadre théorique, nous construisons un modèle Tobit pour étudier des réalignements qui se sont produits dans le Mécanisme de change européen (MCE) entre mars 1979 et décembre 1992. Nous examinons si ces derniers peuvent être envisagés comme résultant d'une règle de décision commune aux membres fondateurs du MCE et s'il peut être dégagé, sur la période étudiée, des tendances lourdes dans leur nature et leur déclenchement. Nous évaluons également le degré d'adéquation des politiques monétaires européennes. [eng] A Bilateral Approach to Realignments in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (March 1979 to December 1992) by Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte and Marc- Alexandre Sénégas In this paper, we present a model for realigning the exchange rate in a bilateral target zone. This modeling forms a bridge between two analytic movements: target zones and balance of payments crises. We use this theoretical framework to construct a Tobit model to study realignments in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) from March 1979 to December 1992. We examine the question of whether these realignments can be regarded as resulting from a decision-making rule shared by the founder members of the ERM and whether any long-run trends can be discerned in their nature and activation for the period studied. We also evaluate the suitability of European monetary policies.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 128 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 61-77

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_128_2_5849
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1997.5849
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