Regional Disparities in Drivers and Peaking Pathways of CO2 Emissions: Insights from Scenario Planning

Faced with domestic and international responsibilities, China urgently needs to coordinate various regions to achieve carbon peak in an orderly manner. As core regions driving economic expansion and primary hubs of energy consumption, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) regions are substantial contributors to carbon emissions in China. To address regional disparities in carbon emission management, this study estimates CO₂ emissions from 1990 to 2021, employing the STIRPAT model to analyze influencing factors. The findings reveal that the key factor affecting CO₂ emissions in both regions is population. Energy intensity plays a larger role in the BTH, while urbanization impacts the YRD more significantly, and industrial structure notably affects emissions only in the YRD. Additionally, the PSO-SVR model is integrated with dynamic scenario analysis to predict carbon peaking under various scenarios. Predictions suggest peaks in 2026 for the BTH and 2028 for the YRD under a baseline scenario, with earlier peaks under low-carbon scenarios and delayed peaks under high-carbon scenarios. The research offers insights for region-specific carbon reduction management strategies, addressing regional disparities and guiding effective mitigation efforts.