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Modelování měnových kurzů
[Modelling foreign exchange rates]


  • Jiří Kubálek


The theoretical models developed under assumption of purchasing pover parity fail to explain large fluctuations that appear in the currency time series since the beginning of the 1980s. The object of the present paper is to demonstrate, that unrestricted Engle-Granger cointegration model with error correction term is a valid framework for analyzing long-run exchange rate equilibrium as well as short term dynamics. In contrast to previous works, the genetic algorithm input selection is used to identify possible exogenity of variables entering in the model and a simulation based experiment splits short-run dynamics into several consecutive periods to improve model's final empirical validity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiří Kubálek, 2000. "Modelování měnových kurzů
    [Modelling foreign exchange rates]
    ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2000(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:1:id:103

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. N. G. Mankiw., 2009. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
    2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    3. Jaromir Benes & Tibor Hledik & Michael Kumhof & David Vavra, 2005. "An Economy in Transition and DSGE: What the Czech National Bank’s New Projection Model Needs," Working Papers 2005/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-666, September.
    5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    6. Michal Andrle & Tibor Hledik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2009. "Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2009/2, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    8. Krivy, Ivan & Tvrdik, Josef & Krpec, Radek, 2000. "Stochastic algorithms in nonlinear regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 277-290, May.
    9. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2010. "Modern macroeconomic models as tools for economic policy," The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue May, pages 5-21.
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