Macro and Micro-Institutional determinants of VSMEs' Access to Bank Financing in Morocco: An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy, Prudential Risk, and Public Support (2014-2024)

This article explores the determinants of bank credit granted to very small, small, and medium-sized enterprises (VSMEs) in Morocco over the period 2014-2024. The study focuses on the combined effects of monetary policy signals, prudential regulation, and government credit guarantees on this segment's access to finance. Using a quantitative approach, the analysis is based on a dataset of 799 lending decisions from two large commercial banks, combined with macroeconomic indicators. The econometric model uses linear regression to estimate the effects of the central bank's policy rate, bank lending rates, risk-weighted assets (RWA), government guarantee volumes, and the economic cycle (before, during, and after COVID-19). The results show that the central bank's policy rate has a statistically significant effect; however, its influence remains limited compared to the strong negative impact of lending rates applied to VSMEs. This confirms the importance of interest rate pass-through and bank pricing behavior in access to credit. The post-COVID period is associated with a marked increase in credit allocation, likely supported by strengthened government guarantees and economic stimulus programs. The results suggest that monetary policy alone is not sufficient to unlock credit for VSMEs. The effectiveness of transmission depends on institutional factors, including risk perception, regulatory constraints, and risk-sharing tools.