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Macroeconomic development in the czech republic and accession to the european union

Author

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  • Jan Fidrmuc
  • Jarko Fidrmuc

Abstract

This paper discusses the implications of accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union. First, we estimate the potential growth in the enlargement and the non-enlargement scenarios. Second, we provide a structural forecast of GDP components. We show that both forecasts are consistent. Accordingly, GDP growth is forecasted to be 4.5 % and 5.0 % in 2001 - 2004 and 4.2 % and 5.2 % in 2005 - 2010 for the accession and non-accession scenarios, respectively. The accession scenario follows the current cyclical pattern (recession 1998 - 1999, recovery 2000 - 2003, boom 2004 - 2007, and a soft landing in the following years), while the non-accession scenario would extend the current recession until 2005.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic development in the czech republic and accession to the european union," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2000(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2000:y:2000:i:4:id:87
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.87
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