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Impactos regionais da reforma tributária: lições de uma análise EGC para o Rio Grande do Sul

Author

Listed:
  • Patrícia Ullmann Palermo
  • Alexandre Alves Porsse
  • Marcelo Savino Portugal

Abstract

Mudanças na legislação tributária promovem a realocação dos fatores de produção, alterando a produção de setores e regiões e, consequentemente, a receita arrecadada pelos governos. A Proposta de Emenda à Constituição (PEC) no 233/2008, buscando manter inalterada a carga tributária atual, propôs a harmonização da legislação do Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços (ICMS) e o aumento da apropriação do imposto pelo destino. Nesse sentido, este artigo avalia a proposta da emenda por meio da aplicação de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável (EGC) inter-regional, admitindo-se que a harmonização implicará convergência das alíquotas efetivas regionais para a alíquota média efetiva do país. Os resultados mostram que a harmonização gera um aumento da alíquota efetiva média no Rio Grande do Sul, com efeitos negativos no produto interno bruto (PIB) e no emprego e positivos na arrecadação. Contudo, a mudança no regramento do regime de apropriação do ICMS para o destino reduz o ganho potencial de receita associado ao processo de harmonização, embora o resultado final ainda seja um efeito positivo sobre a receita do Rio Grande do Sul. Regional impacts of tax reform: lessons from a CGE analysis for Rio Grande do Sul :: Tax reform usually implies reallocation of the economic factors and changes in the sectoral and regional productive structure. This paper aims to analyze the effects of a tax reform program such as that involved in the PEC n. 233/08 whose the main issue is the harmonization of the VAT tax rates (ICMS) among Brazilian states. In order to account for all changes in prices and reallocation of factors in the economic system we use an interregional CGE model calibrated for two regions (Rio Grande do Sul and Resting of Brazil) and the simulations are carried out base on the assumption that effective tax rates at the regional level converge to the national tax rates. The results show that harmonization of ICMS causes an increase in average tax rates of ICMS in Rio Grande do Sul, and negative impact on GDP and employment but a positive impact on revenues. The potential positive impact of tax reform on the revenues collected by Rio Grande do Sul is reduced by the new rules for appropriation of ICMS defined in PEC n. 233/08 but the net effect remain positive on tax revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrícia Ullmann Palermo & Alexandre Alves Porsse & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2013. "Impactos regionais da reforma tributária: lições de uma análise EGC para o Rio Grande do Sul," Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico - PPE, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, vol. 43(3), pages 585-624, dez..
  • Handle: RePEc:ppe:ppeart:y:2013:v:43:i:3:p:585-624
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